Management Research

 Management Technology Essay

Management Technology Quiz -- Baye¡¦s Rule

You have asked your manager to come to your home for dinner therefore you want to pick a good wine. To create a good impression, you are thinking about serving a fresh wine you recently identified. Unfortunately, you could find only one bottle of wine, and you don¡¦t want to open it. Depending on other wine from the same vineyard, you estimate there is certainly only a 10% opportunity the wine will be unacceptable (acceptable being the sole other state-of-nature). A observed wine vit has presented her opinion of the retro in question (she rates wine drinks as either drinkable or dumpable). Before, you have disagreed with her ¡§drinkable¡¨ alternatives (hated a wine the girl liked) just 8% of the time, while you have agreed with her ¡§drinkable¡¨ choices ?????? of the time. Utilize table to calculate a final probabilities with the wine getting acceptable if you consult your wine critic, and after that answer the specific questions shown below. Demonstrate all calculations to three decimal places.

SjP(Sj)P(I1|Sj)P(I1„xSj)P(Sj|I1)

Drinkable

90%87%. 783. 666666666

Dumpable

10%8%. 008. 010

. 791

SjP(Sj)P(I2|Sj)P(I2„xSj)P(Sj|I2)

Drinkable

90%13%. 117. 560

Dumpable

10%92%. 092. 440

. 209

What is the initial likelihood the wine is usually acceptable? _. 791____

What is the initial likelihood the wine is definitely unacceptable? _. 209____

Precisely what is the probability of the wine being satisfactory if the wine beverages critic says ¡§dumpable? ¡¨ _. 560___

What is the probability in the wine becoming unacceptable in the event the wine critic says ¡§drinkable? ¡¨ _. 010___

What is the probability of the wine beverages being unsatisfactory if the wine critic says ¡§dumpable? ¡¨. 440____

Precisely what is the probability of the wine beverage being satisfactory if the wines critic says ¡§drinkable? ¡¨ _. 999___


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